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Improving EWMA Plans for Detecting Unusual Increases in Poisson Counts
Joint Authors
Muscatello, D.
Sparks, R. S.
Keighley, T.
Source
Journal of Applied Mathematics and Decision Sciences
Issue
Vol. 2009, Issue 2009 (31 Dec. 2009), pp.1-16, 16 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2009-09-16
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
16
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Automated public health records provide the necessary data for rapid outbreak detection.
An adaptive exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) plan is developed for signalling unusually high incidence when monitoring a time series of nonhomogeneous daily disease counts.
A Poisson transitional regression model is used to fit background/expected trend in counts and provides “one-day-ahead” forecasts of the next day's count.
Departures of counts from their forecasts are monitored.
The paper outlines an approach for improving early outbreak data signals by dynamically adjusting the exponential weights to be efficient at signalling local persistent high side changes.
We emphasise outbreak signals in steady-state situations; that is, changes that occur after the EWMA statistic had run through several in-control counts.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Sparks, R. S.& Keighley, T.& Muscatello, D.. 2009. Improving EWMA Plans for Detecting Unusual Increases in Poisson Counts. Journal of Applied Mathematics and Decision Sciences،Vol. 2009, no. 2009, pp.1-16.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-477484
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Sparks, R. S.…[et al.]. Improving EWMA Plans for Detecting Unusual Increases in Poisson Counts. Journal of Applied Mathematics and Decision Sciences No. 2009 (2009), pp.1-16.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-477484
American Medical Association (AMA)
Sparks, R. S.& Keighley, T.& Muscatello, D.. Improving EWMA Plans for Detecting Unusual Increases in Poisson Counts. Journal of Applied Mathematics and Decision Sciences. 2009. Vol. 2009, no. 2009, pp.1-16.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-477484
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-477484