System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro
Joint Authors
Monteiro, L. H. A.
Gerardi, D. O.
Source
Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Issue
Vol. 2011, Issue 2011 (31 Dec. 2011), pp.1-13, 13 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2011-07-09
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
13
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system.
Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA).
In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S→I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007.
These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors.
Time-varying and nont-ime-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration.
Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008.
Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Gerardi, D. O.& Monteiro, L. H. A.. 2011. System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro. Mathematical Problems in Engineering،Vol. 2011, no. 2011, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-493237
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Gerardi, D. O.& Monteiro, L. H. A.. System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro. Mathematical Problems in Engineering No. 2011 (2011), pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-493237
American Medical Association (AMA)
Gerardi, D. O.& Monteiro, L. H. A.. System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2011. Vol. 2011, no. 2011, pp.1-13.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-493237
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-493237