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Species Favourability Shift in Europe due to Climate Change : A Case Study for Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies (L.) Karst. Based on an Ensemble of Climate Models
Joint Authors
Falk, Wolfgang
Hempelmann, Nils
Source
Issue
Vol. 2013, Issue 2013 (31 Dec. 2013), pp.1-18, 18 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2013-12-19
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
18
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
Climate is the main environmental driver determining the spatial distribution of most tree species at the continental scale.
We investigated the distribution change of European beech and Norway spruce due to climate change.
We applied a species distribution model (SDM), driven by an ensemble of 21 regional climate models in order to study the shift of the favourability distribution of these species.
SDMs were parameterized for 1971–2000, as well as 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 using the SRES scenario A1B and three physiological meaningful climate variables.
Growing degree sum and precipitation sum were calculated for the growing season on a basis of daily data.
Results show a general north-eastern and altitudinal shift in climatological favourability for both species, although the shift is more marked for spruce.
The gain of new favourable sites in the north or in the Alps is stronger for beech compared to spruce.
Uncertainty is expressed as the variance of the averaged maps and with a density function.
Uncertainty in species distribution increases over time.
This study demonstrates the importance of data ensembles and shows how to deal with different outcomes in order to improve impact studies by showing uncertainty of the resulting maps.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Falk, Wolfgang& Hempelmann, Nils. 2013. Species Favourability Shift in Europe due to Climate Change : A Case Study for Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies (L.) Karst. Based on an Ensemble of Climate Models. Journal of Climatology،Vol. 2013, no. 2013, pp.1-18.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-498082
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Falk, Wolfgang& Hempelmann, Nils. Species Favourability Shift in Europe due to Climate Change : A Case Study for Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies (L.) Karst. Based on an Ensemble of Climate Models. Journal of Climatology No. 2013 (2013), pp.1-18.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-498082
American Medical Association (AMA)
Falk, Wolfgang& Hempelmann, Nils. Species Favourability Shift in Europe due to Climate Change : A Case Study for Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies (L.) Karst. Based on an Ensemble of Climate Models. Journal of Climatology. 2013. Vol. 2013, no. 2013, pp.1-18.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-498082
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-498082